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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the only head of an EU nation to support the Republican candidate. This support was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's embrace of contentious theories like the "great replacement" theory and the crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Analysts have noted that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, with key votes in Hungary merely half a year off, Donald Trump returned some political favors. While Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a country he describes as an illiberal democracy, his political group lags in surveys. A visit to the US capital yielded not just some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Special Treatment and Economic Protections

Despite earlier instructing European states on the necessity to stop all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and threatening restrictions against states continuing to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump agreed to grant a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also pledged to extend a economic protection to Budapest if it faces any upcoming challenges, especially as EU institutions is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this arrangement remain somewhat murky. However Mr Trump illustrated his willingness to help out political friends after the US extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks nevertheless turned out to be a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, Trump's actions probably further underlined the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, before which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, has a clear edge in opinion data. EU chiefs are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the US government, and have grown used to the US president’s efforts to belittle the bloc. However the waiver for Hungary – secured through an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – blatantly weakens EU aspirations to end Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian crude, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the international forums remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of promising a major policy shift on the war in Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while stressing the need for the country to finally behave as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, the European Union can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, such as the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has persisted as a source of shame for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its long-term safety.